PSG walked into Stamford Bridge on Tuesday and left with a 3-0 win. Eight goals conceded across two legs. Chelsea eliminated from the Champions League and looking like a team that has completely run out of ideas at the worst possible moment.
Now Liam Rosenior has to drag his squad up to Merseyside on Saturday evening and face a David Moyes side that just lost 2-0 to Arsenal but is still sitting 8th, still very much in the conversation for European football, and very much aware that Chelsea are there for the taking right now.
Three consecutive defeats. A Champions League humiliation still raw in the dressing room. And Chelsea have to go to Hill Dickinson Stadium where Everton have lost only once in their last eight home meetings against them. This is not a fixture Chelsea would have circled on the calendar as a free three points. Not this week. Not in this form.
Everton vs Chelsea: Key Stats
Head-to-head: Everton 13 wins, Chelsea 34 wins, 24 draws
Everton: Lost just 1 of their last 8 home meetings against Chelsea
Everton: 8th in the Premier League with 12 wins, 7 draws, 11 defeats
Everton: Lost 2-0 to Arsenal in their last match
Everton: Just 1 win in their last 8 home matches across all competitions
Chelsea: Lost three consecutive games including a 3-0 Champions League exit to PSG
Chelsea: 6th in the Premier League with 13 wins, 9 draws, 8 defeats and 48 points
Chelsea: Second best away record in the league with 7 wins from 15 away games
Last 10 head-to-head meetings: Under 2.5 goals in 8 of them
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Everton under David Moyes are built on defensive structure and making life as uncomfortable as possible for the opposition. A low block, compact lines, and sharp on the transition — that is the Moyes blueprint and it has been working well enough to keep Everton in the European conversation. Iliman Ndiaye is their most creative player and Beto will lead the line with his usual directness. Dewsbury-Hall pulls the strings in midfield and Gueye behind him makes sure nobody gets a free run through the centre. Tarkowski and Branthwaite are both injury doubts but Branthwaite looks set to return, which would be a significant boost for their defensive organisation.
Chelsea arrive depleted and demoralised. Colwill, Mudryk, Gittens and Jorgensen are all unavailable. Reece James is a doubt. The PSG defeat was not just a result — it was a performance so bad it raises genuine questions about where this team is heading under Rosenior. Cole Palmer with nine league goals is still their best player and the only one truly performing to his level right now. Joao Pedro leads the line with 14 league goals and has been their most consistent outfield performer all season. But for Chelsea to win at Hill Dickinson they need their midfield to control possession and their defence to hold together — and neither has been convincing recently.
Predicted Lineups
Everton (4-3-3) 🔵⚪
Pickford; O'Brien, Keane, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, McNeil; Beto
Chelsea (4-2-3-1) 🔵
Sanchez; Gusto, Chalobah, Fofana, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Neto, Palmer, Garnacho; Joao Pedro
Players to Watch
Iliman Ndiaye — Everton's most dangerous creative player and the man most likely to unlock Chelsea's defence with a moment of individual quality. When he gets the ball in tight spaces and faces up to his man, things happen. Chelsea's full backs need to be alert to him all game.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall — Two goals in his last two Premier League appearances and the man who sets Everton's tempo in midfield. He is the engine Moyes relies on to connect defence and attack and has been in the kind of form that makes England squads pay attention.
Cole Palmer — Nine league goals and the only Chelsea player who consistently looks like he belongs at this level every single week. In a team this low on confidence, everything runs through him. If Palmer is quiet, Chelsea are quiet. Simple as that.
Joao Pedro — Fourteen league goals and Chelsea's most reliable finisher this season. Whatever is happening around him, Pedro keeps scoring. One chance inside the box and this game changes completely for Chelsea.
Prediction
💵 Everton to win: 3.53
💵 Chelsea to win: 2.2
💵 Draw: 3.36
💵 Over 2.5 Goals: 1.81
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Chelsea
The data keeps pointing at the same conclusion from multiple directions. Eight of the last ten meetings between these sides went under 2.5 goals. Everton have lost just once in eight home meetings against Chelsea. Chelsea are winless in three straight and walking in with a dressing room that is still processing Tuesday night. Everton are inconsistent at home but hard to beat in this specific fixture. Both teams are going to be cautious, both are going to respect the other's threat, and both are going to find it very difficult to kill the game off. A draw feels written all over this one — frustrating for everyone involved, but exactly what the numbers have been suggesting all week.
