The last time the United States played Paraguay at a World Cup, the year was 1930, Bert Patenaude scored the first hat-trick in World Cup history, and the USA won 3-0. Ninety-six years later, they meet again at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and almost nothing about either country is the same except the part where the USA are favourites and expected to win comfortably.
The thing is, that expectation might be doing the USA a disservice. Paraguay are not the team the rankings suggest. Under Gustavo Alfaro, they have gone unbeaten in eight matches, including wins over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. They conceded just 14 goals across eighteen CONMEBOL qualifiers. That is not a team coming to Los Angeles to enjoy the experience and take selfies. That is a hardened, defensively organised, set-piece-hunting South American side that knows exactly how to make a more talented opponent miserable for ninety minutes.
And the USA have their own issues. Christian Pulisic, the captain and talisman, is on an eight-match scoring drought for the national team. Pochettino has had almost two years to prepare for this moment and the warm-ups produced a 3-2 win over Senegal followed by a 2-1 loss to Germany. The talent is there. Balogun scored nineteen goals for Monaco. McKennie and Adams give the midfield steel. But this is a host nation carrying the weight of an entire country's expectations into the opening weekend, and Paraguay are precisely the kind of opponent who can turn that weight into a problem.
USA vs Paraguay: Key Stats
Last World Cup meeting: USA won 3-0 in 1930, with the first ever World Cup hat-trick
Paraguay: Unbeaten in their last 8 matches, including wins over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay
Paraguay: Conceded just 14 goals across 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers
Paraguay: Beat Nicaragua 4-0 in their final warm-up
Paraguay: First World Cup appearance since 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals
USA: Beat Senegal 3-2 before losing 2-1 to Germany in their warm-ups
USA: Christian Pulisic on an eight-match scoring drought for the national team
USA: Reached the knockout stage in each of their last 3 World Cup appearances
USA: Beat Paraguay 2-1 in a friendly last November
Both teams play all their Group D games on home or neutral US soil
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
The USA will dominate possession. That is simply how this game sets up. Pochettino's side will have the ball, the territory, and the support of a packed SoFi Stadium roaring them forward. The question is whether they can break down a Paraguay defence that has spent two years perfecting the art of staying compact and frustrating better teams. Pulisic on the left needs to end his drought and Balogun up front needs the service to be effective. The USA have underperformed from set pieces under Pochettino, which matters against a Paraguay side that lives for them. If the USA score early, the nerves settle and the quality tells. If it stays goalless past the hour mark, the anxiety in the stadium becomes a factor and Paraguay grow into exactly the kind of game they want.
Paraguay will cede the ball, sit deep, and wait. That is the entire plan and there is no shame in it because it has worked against the best teams in South America. Alderete and captain Gustavo Gomez anchor a back line that does not panic. Julio Enciso, nursing a minor quad issue but expected to feature, is the creative spark who can produce something on the counter. Miguel Almiron brings the pace and the experience of years in the Premier League. Sanabria leads the line as their qualifying top scorer. Paraguay do not need much. One set piece, one counter attack, one moment where the USA over-commit, and they have the defensive discipline to protect a lead for as long as it takes.
Predicted Lineups
USA (3-4-3)
Freese; Freeman, M. Robinson, Ream; Dest, McKennie, Adams, A. Robinson; Pulisic, Tillman; Balogun
Paraguay (4-2-3-1)
Gill; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Bobadilla, Cubas; D. Gomez, Enciso, Almiron; Sanabria
Players to Watch
Christian Pulisic - Eight games without a goal for the national team and the entire country waiting for their captain to deliver on the biggest possible stage. His club form at Milan has been up and down but his national team performances are usually better than the numbers suggest. SoFi Stadium will be willing him to break the drought and there is no better moment to do it than the opening night of a home World Cup.
Folarin Balogun - Nineteen goals for Monaco last season and the clinical presence the USA have lacked at previous tournaments. He was excellent against Germany even in defeat. Against a Paraguay defence that does not give away many chances, Balogun has to make the few that come his way count. One goal from him changes the entire feel of the USA's tournament.
Julio Enciso - Paraguay's most creative player and the one capable of producing a moment of magic against the run of play. Carrying a minor quad issue but expected to feature, Enciso is the difference between Paraguay being purely defensive and Paraguay being genuinely dangerous on the break. The USA must keep him quiet.
Miguel Almiron - Years of Premier League experience at Newcastle and the pace to punish any USA defensive lapse on the counter. He knows this level, knows how to handle big occasions, and gives Paraguay an outlet that the USA's adventurous wing-backs will leave space for. A dangerous man on a night when the hosts will be pushing forward relentlessly.
Prediction
Prediction: USA to win, under 2.5 goals @ 2.10
The USA have the talent, the home crowd, and the territory to win this game. But Paraguay are far better than their ranking and have built a team specifically designed to frustrate opponents exactly like this. The USA will dominate the ball and create chances, but Paraguay's defensive organisation means the breakthrough will not come easily. Pulisic or Balogun eventually finds the goal that settles the nerves and the home crowd carries the USA over the line. A tight, controlled, slightly nervy 1-0 or 2-0 is how this plays out. Not a thriller, but a winning start, which is exactly what a host nation needs before facing Australia and Turkey.
