Sixteen years ago, Siphiwe Tshabalala received the ball on the left, took one touch, and absolutely smashed it into the top corner of Soccer City to open the 2010 World Cup. The whole of South Africa lost its mind. Vuvuzelas everywhere. A nation united in one perfect moment. Rafael Marquez eventually equalised for Mexico and the game finished 1-1, but nobody remembers the Marquez goal. They remember Tshabalala.
And now, by a scheduling coincidence so perfect it feels scripted, the exact same two teams open the exact same tournament sixteen years later. Same fixture, completely flipped script. This time Mexico are the hosts, the Estadio Azteca is going to be a sold-out wall of 83,000 screaming El Tri supporters, and South Africa are the underdogs who have not been to a World Cup since they hosted one. The first game of 104. The first kick of the expanded 48-team era. And it could not have a better storyline attached to it.
Mexico are a nation with a complicated relationship to this tournament. They host it more than anyone — three times now, a record — and yet they have not gone past the round of 16 since 1986. That is forty years of getting to the same door and never walking through it. Javier Aguirre is in his third separate stint as Mexico manager and one of his previous spells included that 2010 opener against, yes, South Africa. The man is living in a loop. The pressure on him to finally break Mexico's quarter-final curse is enormous and it starts on Thursday night at altitude in front of the most demanding home crowd in world football.
Mexico vs South Africa: Key Stats
Last meeting: 1-1 draw in the 2010 World Cup opener, the famous Tshabalala game
Mexico: Unbeaten in 8 successive friendlies in 2026
Mexico: Won their last 3 — 2-0 vs Ghana, 1-0 vs Australia, 5-1 vs Serbia
Mexico: Kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches this year
Mexico: Unbeaten in their last 7 World Cup opening games since 1994
Mexico: Have not advanced past the round of 16 since 1986
South Africa: Fourth World Cup appearance, first since hosting in 2010
South Africa: Winless in their last 4 friendlies, 3 draws and 1 loss
South Africa: Drew 0-0 with Nicaragua and 1-1 with Jamaica in recent warm-ups
South Africa: Docked 3 points in qualifying for fielding an ineligible player and still topped the group
Mexico: Raul Jimenez one goal from becoming joint-second all-time top scorer
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Mexico will come out fast and let the Azteca do the rest. The altitude in Mexico City is a genuine weapon that visiting teams underestimate every single time and South Africa, however fit, will feel their legs getting heavy somewhere around the hour mark. Raul Jimenez leads the line one goal away from becoming Mexico's joint-second all-time leading scorer, which is exactly the kind of personal milestone that produces an early goal on an emotional opening night. Julian Quinones, fresh off scoring 33 goals in the Saudi Pro League to win the Golden Boot, gives them a clinical edge in the box. The question for Aguirre is whether he trusts 17-year-old sensation Gilberto Mora in midfield or goes with experience. Either way, Mexico have too much quality, too much support, and too much motivation to start slowly.
South Africa will defend deep, stay disciplined, and pray. Hugo Broos has built Bafana Bafana into a team that grinds out results through organisation rather than flair, and their qualifying campaign — topping the group despite a three-point deduction — proved they have resilience. But the warm-up form has been genuinely poor. Goalless against Nicaragua. Held by Jamaica. Broos himself admitted his team fell short and promised a deep analysis of what went wrong. Lyle Foster leads the line and Oswin Appollis, who contributed to six goals in qualifying, is their most creative outlet. If South Africa can survive the opening half hour without conceding, the game becomes interesting. If Mexico score early, the Azteca turns into a party and Bafana Bafana are in for a long, thin-aired evening.
Predicted Lineups
Mexico (4-3-3)
Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Alvarez, Gallardo; Gutierrez, Fidalgo, Pineda; Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones
South Africa (4-3-3)
Williams; Mudau, Mbokazi, Okon, Modiba; Mbatha, Sithole, Mokoena; Appollis, Foster, Moremi
Players to Watch
Raul Jimenez - One goal from Mexican history on the biggest possible stage in front of his own people. The new Wolves signing has the experience, the composure, and exactly the kind of motivation that produces opening-night goals. If he scores early, the Azteca becomes the loudest place on earth and South Africa's evening unravels quickly.
Guillermo Ochoa - Forty years old and chasing the chance to become the first player ever to appear at six World Cups. He faces competition from Raul Rangel for the starting spot, but if Ochoa walks out at the Azteca on opening night, it is one of the great individual stories of the tournament. A legend writing one final chapter.
Lyle Foster - The Burnley striker carries South Africa's attacking hopes almost single-handedly. He scored in the Jamaica draw and is the one player capable of producing a moment against the run of play that gives Bafana Bafana something to hold onto. On a night where South Africa will see very little of the ball, Foster has to make the rare chances count.
Oswin Appollis - Six goal contributions in World Cup qualifying and South Africa's most creative player. The Orlando Pirates winger is the man Broos relies on to make something happen in the final third. If South Africa are going to spring the biggest upset of the opening round, Appollis producing one moment of magic is how it starts.
Prediction
Prediction: Mexico to win and over 1.5 goals @ 1.70
The script writes itself. Mexico at home, at altitude, in front of a sold-out Azteca, unbeaten in eight friendlies, and desperate to start their home World Cup with a statement. South Africa arrive winless in four, struggling for goals, and walking into one of the most intimidating environments in world football. Bafana Bafana will be disciplined and make Mexico work for the first half hour, exactly as Broos's teams always do. But the altitude tells, the quality difference tells, and Jimenez or Quinones finds the breakthrough. Mexico win, the tournament kicks off with a party in Mexico City, and South Africa take the lessons into their next two Group A games against South Korea and the Czech Republic. Sixteen years on, the script flips, and this time the hosts get the result the home crowd demands.
