Three points clear. Four games left. Twenty-two years of waiting.
Arsenal beat Newcastle 1-0 last weekend with Eze hammering a short-corner routine into the top corner in the ninth minute and then spending the next hour clinging to it like a life raft. Not pretty. Not convincing. But three points. And on Saturday evening they can open up a six-point lead while Manchester City sit at home watching, unable to respond until Monday.
The timing is perfect. The opponent is Fulham, who have scored four goals in seven games and have never won a Premier League away match against the team sitting top of the table. Never. In the entire Premier League era. And they are walking into a ground where Arsenal have not lost to them in their previous 32 league home games. Thirty-two. The longest unbeaten home run one English club has ever had against a single opponent in the history of the league.
Oh, and Arsenal played Atletico Madrid on Wednesday and drew 1-1 in the Champions League semi-final first leg. They are doing this on 72 hours rest. The title is right there. Fulham are the only thing between Arsenal and breathing room.
Arsenal vs Fulham: Key Stats
Head-to-head at Emirates: Arsenal unbeaten in their last 32 home league meetings with Fulham, an English football record
Arsenal: 73 points from 34 games, 3 points clear of Manchester City with 4 games left
Arsenal: Just 11 goals conceded at home all season in the Premier League
Arsenal: Drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid in Champions League semi-final on Wednesday
Fulham: Scored in just 2 of their last 7 games in all competitions, 4 goals total
Fulham: Winless in 3 consecutive away league games without scoring
Fulham: Never won a Premier League away game against the team sitting top of the table
Fulham: 10th in the table with 48 points, 2 points behind Brighton in sixth
Sessegnon: Injury doubt after being forced off against Villa last weekend
Havertz: Major doubt for Arsenal after muscular injury
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Arsenal will be tired. There is no other way to say it. Wednesday's battle with Atletico Madrid was fiery and physical and now Arteta asks his players to turn around in 72 hours for a title-defining home fixture. Saka and Eze were both restricted to cameo roles at the Metropolitano and should start here, which gives Arsenal their best attacking combination on the right side. Gyokeres leads the line after converting the penalty against Atletico and has now scored in four consecutive appearances. Calafiori returns to the starting defence after his recovery and the back four looks more settled than it has in weeks. The Emirates crowd will be extraordinary on a title-race Saturday evening and Arsenal at home with a fully fit Saka is a genuinely difficult prospect for any mid-table side.
Fulham arrive knowing this is a damage-limitation exercise as much as anything else. Silva has done exceptional work at Craven Cottage and the rumours about him replacing Rosenior at Chelsea have not helped his team's focus, but Fulham are still only two points behind sixth-placed Brighton and European football is genuinely possible. Emile Smith Rowe will start against his old club at the Emirates, which is the kind of sub-plot the Premier League serves up regularly. Jimenez leads the attack but with Iwobi out through injury and Sessegnon a doubt after limping off against Villa, Fulham's attacking options are worryingly limited. Four goals in seven games is not the kind of form that hurts Arsenal at home.
Predicted Lineups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
Raya; Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Eze; Gyokeres
Fulham (4-2-3-1)
Leno; Castagne, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Lukic; Wilson, Smith Rowe, Chukwueze; Jimenez
Players to Watch
Viktor Gyokeres - Four goals in four appearances and Arsenal's most reliable finisher since his arrival. He plays with a physicality and directness that Fulham's centre backs will find very difficult to handle for 90 minutes and one chance inside the box is usually all he needs. If Arsenal create, Gyokeres converts.
Bukayo Saka - The most creative player in this Arsenal side and the man who makes everything flow when fit. He has created more open-play chances than any English player in Europe's top five leagues this season. After being restricted to a cameo in Madrid, Saturday is where he reminds everyone he is the most important player in the title race.
Emile Smith Rowe - Going back to his boyhood club in the middle of a title race they are trying to win without him. He has been one of Fulham's better performers this season and will be motivated. If Smith Rowe has a good game, Fulham have something to build on.
Raul Jimenez - Fulham's most experienced forward and the man who has to lead their attack against a defence that has conceded just eleven home league goals all season. He needs a big performance to give Fulham anything from this game and his ability to hold the ball up and bring others into play is their best tactical option.
Prediction
Arsenal to win: 1.48
Fulham to win: 7.61
Draw: 4.95
Over 2.5 Goals: 1.81
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Fulham
The data makes this as clear as it gets in football. Arsenal unbeaten in 32 home league games against Fulham. Fulham without a goal or a win in three away league games. Arsenal conceding just eleven home Premier League goals all season. Fulham scoring four goals in seven games. The context adds even more weight — Arsenal need to win, the crowd will demand it, and Saka returning to the starting lineup is the difference between an Arsenal that creates plenty and an Arsenal that creates everything. Fatigue from Wednesday is the only legitimate concern but Fulham do not have the quality to exploit tired legs at the Emirates. Arsenal win comfortably and go six points clear before City play.
