Michael Carrick has done something nobody expected. Nobody.
When he walked through the door at Old Trafford in mid-January, United were a mess. They had eight wins from twenty games under Ruben Amorim, who finished 15th last season and was shown the door before this one got any worse. Since Carrick took over, United have accumulated 32 points. More than any other team in the Premier League in that period. Ten wins, including a 3-2 comeback against Liverpool last weekend where Kobbie Mainoo celebrated signing his new contract by scoring a late winner.
Champions League football is secured. Third place is in their hands. And Carrick is still waiting to find out if the job is his permanently.
He takes his team to the Stadium of Light on Saturday afternoon against a Sunderland side that has won once in five home games, conceded ten goals in their last three matches, and just drew with Wolves, who are bottom of the league. The Black Cats have not beaten United since 2016. They have never beaten a team sitting in the top four in the last 28 attempts. Twenty-eight games, nine draws, nineteen defeats.
This should be the kind of afternoon where United make a statement and Carrick makes his case.
Sunderland vs Manchester United: Key Stats
Head-to-head: Manchester United 24 wins, Sunderland 3 wins, 6 draws in Premier League history
United: Won their last 3 consecutive Premier League games
United: Scored in every one of their last 23 consecutive Premier League games
United: 63 league goals this season, third highest in the division behind only Arsenal and City
United: Won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Old Trafford in October
United: Won 10 of their last 15 visits to the Stadium of Light, lost just 1
Sunderland: Winless in their last 3 Premier League games, drawing once and losing twice
Sunderland: Lost 4 of their last 5 home league games
Sunderland: Conceded 10 goals in their last 3 Premier League matches
Sunderland: No win against a top-four team in their last 28 Premier League attempts
Bruno Fernandes: One assist from the all-time single-season Premier League record of 20
Ballard: Three-match suspension. Sesko: Doubt with a shin problem
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Sunderland's season has been genuinely impressive for a newly promoted side. Le Bris had them unbeaten at home for their first twelve league games and 47 points from 35 matches is miles ahead of where they were last time they played in this division. The problem is the wheels have come off slightly. Four defeats in five home games. Ten goals conceded in three matches. Ballard suspended. Mundle injured. And now they face the most in-form team in England since January.
Xhaka captains them in midfield and will try to set the tempo. Brobbey leads the attack and gives them a physical presence. If Sunderland score at all from open play on Saturday, it probably starts with Xhaka finding something creative from deep. Their hope is that United are loose at the back, having conceded in eight of their last ten league games. United have Fernandes one assist away from history and he will want that record badly. Mainoo has been excellent since his contract extension. Cunha scored six minutes into last weekend's game against Liverpool and is hitting form at exactly the right time. Martinez returns from suspension to bring experience and quality back into the defence. Carrick has options, momentum, and a squad playing with the confidence of a team that just knocked Liverpool out of third place. Even with Sesko doubtful, United have enough to handle this comfortably.
Predicted Lineups
Sunderland (4-3-3)
Roefs; Mukiele, O'Nien, Alderete, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki; Talbi, Diarra, Le Fee; Brobbey
Manchester United (4-2-3-1)
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Casemiro, Mainoo; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha; Sesko
Players to Watch
Bruno Fernandes - Nineteen assists this season and one away from a Premier League record that nobody has touched. He is going to get that record before this season ends and Saturday feels like the right moment. If he reaches twenty against Sunderland, Old Trafford or wherever United are next will hear about it for years.
Matheus Cunha - Six minutes against Liverpool, one goal. He is in that kind of form where the first opportunity becomes a goal and that is the most dangerous kind of forward to face. Sunderland's defence has conceded ten goals in three games. They are not in the right shape to be dealing with Cunha in this mood.
Granit Xhaka - Three goals against United from outside the box across his career, more than any other player against them. He captains Sunderland, protects the backline, and creates from deep. If Sunderland are going to cause any problems at all, it comes through him doing something the United midfield does not expect.
Brian Brobbey - The Ajax loanee leads Sunderland's line and has shown moments of quality in this league all season. Against a United defence that has been leaky recently, he gets a chance to show what he can do at this level. One performance here could define his future.
Prediction
Sunderland to win: 4.13
Manchester United to win: 1.92
Draw: 3.97
Over 2.5 Goals: 1.77
Prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Manchester United
The data points one way and it does not flicker. United have scored in 23 consecutive Premier League games. Sunderland have conceded ten in three and lost four of their last five at home. United have won ten of their fifteen visits to this ground in the top flight and have not lost to Sunderland since 2016. Fernandes will get his record. Cunha will score again. Sunderland will grab a goal because they always seem to in these home games and the crowd will make it briefly uncomfortable. United win and go level with Arsenal on points if the Gunners slip up on Monday at West Ham.
