Martin Dubravka went up for a last-minute corner at Turf Moor on Wednesday night and Arsenal supporters held their breath. If Burnley score, City drop points, Arsenal go back top. It did not happen. City won 1-0. And now Arsenal, who were nine points clear at the top of the table just a month ago, are second on goal difference with two home games left before City play again.
The title slipped through their fingers against Bournemouth. Then against City. And now April, the cursed month for Arteta, the month where his points-per-game ratio reads a meagre 1.48, the month that has ended Arsenal title challenges before, is threatening to do it again.
Newcastle are the visitors on Saturday. On paper, that sounds like the perfect remedy. In practice, things are considerably more complicated than they appear.
Newcastle have lost three Premier League games in a row, eight of their last eleven, and Eddie Howe is reportedly walking into a crunch meeting with the PIF ownership next week. A win at the Emirates could change that conversation. The problem is they have not won any of their last thirteen away league games at this ground and have managed precisely one goal in their last nine visits. One goal in nine trips. That is not a statistic that suggests a rescue mission is coming.
But Arsenal are without Saka, Calafiori, Timber, and Merino. And Arsenal without Saka win 45% of their Premier League games. Arsenal without Saka are a genuinely different team. The data says so clearly.
Arsenal vs Newcastle: Key Stats
Head-to-head overall: Arsenal 87 wins, Newcastle 72 wins, 39 draws
Arsenal: Unbeaten in their last 13 home Premier League games against Newcastle
Arsenal: Just one win in their last six games across all competitions
Arsenal: Level on points with Manchester City but second on goal difference
Arsenal: Points-per-game of just 1.48 in April under Arteta
Arsenal: Win rate drops from 73% to 45% without Saka in the starting lineup
Newcastle: Lost their last 3 Premier League games, 8 of their last 11
Newcastle: Winless in their last 13 Premier League away games at the Emirates
Newcastle: Scored just 1 goal in their last 9 visits to the Emirates
Newcastle: Both teams scored in 9 of their last 10 games
Newcastle: 8 of their last 10 Premier League games went over 2.5 goals
Arsenal: Beat Newcastle 2-1 in the reverse fixture in September with a 95th-minute winner
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Arsenal need to win this and they know it. City are in an FA Cup semi-final this weekend so the Emirates is the place where Arsenal can go back to the summit without City being able to respond until Monday at Everton. Arteta will be conservative enough to protect against the counter but bold enough to use Odegaard and Eze to unlock Newcastle's shape. Havertz leads the line with Gyokeres available as an option, Madueke and Eze provide the width and creativity in Saka's absence. Zubimendi and Rice in the double pivot give Arsenal the defensive protection to push the full backs forward. The Emirates crowd on a title-deciding evening will be extraordinary and Arsenal's home record against this opponent borders on untouchable. But without Saka, the cutting edge in the final third is simply not the same and chances will need to be taken when they arrive.
Newcastle welcome Bruno Guimaraes back from injury for his first start in over two months and that is genuinely significant. When Guimaraes plays, Newcastle are a different team in midfield. Trippier replaces the injured Livramento at right back, Gordon is a doubt but may feature, and Barnes and Osula lead the forward line. The Magpies have been wide open defensively all season but they have also scored in every one of their last eighteen games in all competitions. They will not come to the Emirates to park the bus completely. One moment on the counter, one set piece, one Barnes run in behind and this game changes. That is Newcastle's only realistic path to anything here.
Predicted Lineups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Madueke, Odegaard, Eze; Havertz
Newcastle United (4-3-3)
Ramsdale; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Guimaraes, Tonali, Miley; Murphy, Osula, Barnes
Players to Watch
Martin Odegaard - Back from injury and back in the captain's armband at the most important moment of Arsenal's season. Everything flows through him and on a night this significant at the Emirates, Arteta needs his captain to be the best player on the pitch. If Odegaard controls the tempo in the first half, Arsenal will win this game.
Eberechi Eze - The man tasked with filling Saka's creative void from the opposite side. He has been excellent since joining Arsenal and his ability to drive at defenders and create chances from the left gives Arsenal a different dimension. Newcastle's right back will have a long evening if Eze is in the mood.
Bruno Guimaraes - First start in over two months and coming back into a team that has lost three in a row. His physicality and technical quality in the defensive midfield role is the foundation of anything Newcastle want to build going forward. If he can keep Rice and Zubimendi occupied and win the midfield battle, Newcastle have something to work with.
Lewis Barnes - Newcastle's most consistent performer in a deeply difficult season. He gives them directness, pace, and an ability to beat his man in wide areas. Against an Arsenal right side missing Saka's defensive contribution, Barnes can cause problems that go beyond what the scoreline might suggest for most of the game.
Prediction
Arsenal to win: 1.52
Newcastle to win: 6.42
Draw: 5.03
Over 2.5 Goals: 1.62
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle
The context and the data both point firmly towards Arsenal. They are unbeaten in thirteen consecutive home league games against Newcastle. Newcastle have one goal in nine trips to the Emirates. Arsenal need this game more than any they have played in months and the Emirates crowd on a Saturday evening in a title race will be as loud as it gets anywhere in England. Newcastle will improve with Guimaraes back but their away form has been catastrophic and they are walking into a ground where they simply do not score. Arsenal without Saka are less dangerous but still significantly better than a Newcastle side that has lost eight of their last eleven Premier League games. A professional, controlled home win and Arsenal go back to the top of the table before City respond.
