Argentina needed an own goal in the 111th minute to survive Cape Verde. The holders were second best for long stretches, rode 16 shots on Emiliano Martinez's goal, and only advanced when Diony Borges turned into his own net. That's the team Egypt meet in Atlanta on Tuesday, and it's a more beatable one than the ranking suggests.
Scaloni's side keep finding ways regardless. They've won 10 of their 12 World Cup matches that went past 90 minutes, they're on an eight-game winning run, and they've scored at least twice in every one of those wins. The Cape Verde scare was real, but so is the habit of getting through.
Egypt reached the last 16 for the first time in 92 years and, unlike their 1934 walkover, earned it. They beat Australia on penalties with a flawless record from the spot, Salah rolling in a Panenka to cap it. His tears at full time said what the achievement meant.
What happens next is the concern. Egypt have conceded in six straight matches after a run of three clean sheets, and their attack runs almost entirely through Salah producing something individual or a set piece dropping right. When neither lands, they stop threatening.
The injuries sharpen the problem. Left-back Karim Hafez limped off against Australia and his deputy Ahmed Fatouh is carrying a thigh issue, so Egypt could face Messi's right-sided threat with a makeshift defence. Centre-back Mohamed Abdelmonem is also touch-and-go with an ankle problem. Those are the exact areas Messi lives in.
Argentina aren't fully fresh either. Molina, Enzo Fernandez and Facundo Medina all skipped full training after two hours against Cape Verde, though Medina's issue is being called cramp. Tagliafico covers at left-back, and Nico Gonzalez is the bigger doubt with an ankle sprain.
Argentina vs Egypt: Key Stats
Only previous meeting: Argentina won 2-0 in a 2008 friendly, with Messi absent injured
Argentina have won 7 of their last 9 World Cup last-16 ties
Argentina have won 10 of their 12 World Cup matches that went beyond 90 minutes
Egypt have conceded in 6 consecutive matches
Messi set a record for knockout-stage goal involvements with 12 in the last 32
Photo Credit (Getty Images)
What to Expect
Argentina will keep the ball and wait for Messi to unlock the door, which is how most of their knockout games go now. Julian Alvarez and Thiago Almada move around him, and the midfield of De Paul, Fernandez and Mac Allister rarely surrenders control for long. If Egypt's patched-up left side holds, that alone is the match.
Egypt's plan is tighter: sit compact, frustrate, and back Salah or Omar Marmoush to produce one moment on the break. It got them past Australia. Against a side scoring twice a game and a defence missing its first-choice full-backs, holding on for 70 minutes is a stretch.
Predicted Lineups
Argentina (4-3-3) 🇦🇷
E. Martinez; Molina, Romero, L. Martinez, Medina; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Messi, Martinez, Almada
Egypt (4-4-2) 🇪🇬
Shobeir; Hany, Fathy, Ibrahim, Rabia; Ashour, Lasheen, Ateya, Ziko; Salah, Marmoush
Players to Watch
Messi already holds the record for knockout-stage goal involvements and is playing what's almost certainly his last World Cup. Egypt's injury-hit left side is the exact weakness he exploits, and at 39 he needs barely any touches to settle a tie.
Salah is Egypt's everything, fresh off the Panenka that sent them through. If Egypt score, he's involved in it. He'll see far less of the ball than he wants against Argentina's midfield, so every touch has to count.
Julian Alvarez runs the channels either side of Messi and punishes any defence that overloads onto the number 10. His movement drags back lines apart, and a defence down to its backups will struggle to track him.
Marmoush is Egypt's outlet in transition, the man who has to convert their rare counters. He has the pace to hurt Argentina if they commit bodies forward, and without him Egypt's attack shrinks to Salah alone.
Prediction
Prediction: Argentina to win and over 2.5 goals @ 2.25
Argentina score twice a game, Egypt concede every game, and the Pharaohs are missing the defenders they can least afford to lose against Messi. The holders should win this comfortably even with the Cape Verde slog still in the legs. Salah gives Egypt a puncher's chance of a goal, which is why the goals line reads better than backing a clean sheet.
